Probabilistic surrogate modeling of offshore wind-turbine loads with chained Gaussian processes

Heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression, based on the concept of chained Gaussian processes, is used to build surrogates to predict site-specific loads on an offshore wind turbine. Stochasticity in the inflow turbulence and irregular waves results in load responses that are best represented as random variables rather than deterministic values. Moreover, the effect of these stochastic sources on the loads depends strongly on the mean environmental conditions -- for instance, at low mean wind speeds, inflow turbulence produces much less variability in loads than at high wind speeds. Statistically, this is known as heteroscedasticity. Deterministic and most stochastic surrogates do not account for the heteroscedastic noise, giving an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of the structural response. In this paper, we draw on the recent advancements in statistical inference to train a heteroscedastic surrogate model on a noisy database to predict the conditional pdf of the response. The model is informed via 10-minute load statistics of the IEA-10MW-RWT subject to both aero- and hydrodynamic loads, simulated with OpenFAST. Its performance is assessed against the standard Gaussian process regression. The predicted mean is similar in both models, but the heteroscedastic surrogate approximates the large-scale variance of the responses significantly better.Comment: 10 pages. To be published in the IOP Journal of Physics: Conference Series. To be presented at TORQUE 202

Contribution à l'amélioration de la simulation numérique du décrochage dynamique sur une éolienne à axe vertical

De meilleurs outils numériques de simulation du comportement et des performances des éoliennes à axe vertical sont devenus essentiels au développement de solutions de production décentralisée d’électricité. Le rapport de solidité élevée de l’éolienne à axe vertical considérée ici engendre un fonctionnement à faible vitesse réduite et la présence de tourbillons de décrochage dynamique pour lesquels la simulation numérique est difficilement accessible à la modélisation. On utilise un modèle tourbillonnaire bidimensionnel basé sur des surfaces portantes pour représenter les éléments de pale et des particules lagrangiennes porteuses de tourbillon pour reproduire le sillage. Le phénomène de décrochage dynamique y est incorporé par un modèle global dont il faut ajuster le comportement. Dans ce but, des essais en soufflerie sur une maquette d’éolienne Darrieus tripale ont été réalisés. L’objectif est d’analyser la dynamique du décollement de la couche limite pour des vitesses réduites de 1,0 à 2,0. Des mesures instationnaires de répartition de pression à mi-envergure des pales ont été effectuées à l’aide de capteurs de pression déportés aux extrémités des pales. Les variations de la pression donnent des indications sur les effets des lâchers tourbillonnaires, leur position azimutale et leur localisation sur la pale. Des mesures de vitesse par image de particules (PIV) ont été réalisées simultanément aux mesures de pression pour déterminer le champ de vitesse dans le sillage proche de la maquette, à mi-envergure des pales, à une distance de un à deux rayons en aval de l’axe de rotation. Ces informations sur la dynamique tourbillonnaire permettent l’amélioration de la modélisation numérique des effets induits sur les pales

Age-Related Changes of Peak Width Skeletonized Mean Diffusivity (PSMD) Across the Adult Lifespan: A Multi-Cohort Study

Parameters of water diffusion in white matter derived from diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), such as fractional anisotropy (FA), mean, axial, and radial diffusivity (MD, AD, and RD), and more recently, peak width of skeletonized mean diffusivity (PSMD), have been proposed as potential markers of normal and pathological brain ageing. However, their relative evolution over the entire adult lifespan in healthy individuals remains partly unknown during early and late adulthood, and particularly for the PSMD index. Here, we gathered and analyzed cross-sectional diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data from 10 population-based cohort studies in order to establish the time course of white matter water diffusion phenotypes from post-adolescence to late adulthood. DTI data were obtained from a total of 20,005 individuals aged 18.1 to 92.6 years and analyzed with the same pipeline for computing skeletonized DTI metrics from DTI maps. For each individual, MD, AD, RD, and FA mean values were computed over their FA volume skeleton, PSMD being calculated as the 90% peak width of the MD values distribution across the FA skeleton. Mean values of each DTI metric were found to strongly vary across cohorts, most likely due to major differences in DWI acquisition protocols as well as pre-processing and DTI model fitting. However, age effects on each DTI metric were found to be highly consistent across cohorts. RD, MD, and AD variations with age exhibited the same U-shape pattern, first slowly decreasing during post-adolescence until the age of 30, 40, and 50 years, respectively, then progressively increasing until late life. FA showed a reverse profile, initially increasing then continuously decreasing, slowly until the 70s, then sharply declining thereafter. By contrast, PSMD constantly increased, first slowly until the 60s, then more sharply. These results demonstrate that, in the general population, age affects PSMD in a manner different from that of other DTI metrics. The constant increase in PSMD throughout the entire adult life, including during post-adolescence, indicates that PSMD could be an early marker of the ageing process

The atlas of StW 573 and the late emergence of human-like head mobility and brain metabolism

Functional morphology of the atlas reflects multiple aspects of an organism’s biology. More specifically, its shape indicates patterns of head mobility, while the size of its vascular foramina reflects blood flow to the brain. Anatomy and function of the early hominin atlas, and thus, its evolutionary history, are poorly documented because of a paucity of fossilized material. Meticulous excavation, cleaning and high-resolution micro-CT scanning of the StW 573 (‘Little Foot’) skull has revealed the most complete early hominin atlas yet found, having been cemented by breccia in its displaced and flipped over position on the cranial base anterolateral to the foramen magnum. Description and landmark-free morphometric analyses of the StW 573 atlas, along with other less complete hominin atlases from Sterkfontein (StW 679) and Hadar (AL 333-83), confirm the presence of an arboreal component in the positional repertoire of Australopithecus. Finally, assessment of the cross-sectional areas of the transverse foramina of the atlas and the left carotid canal in StW 573 further suggests there may have been lower metabolic costs for cerebral tissues in this hominin than have been attributed to extant humans and may support the idea that blood perfusion of these tissues increased over the course of hominin evolution.The DST-NRF for sponsoring the Micro-XCT facility at Necsa, and the DST-NRF and Wits University for funding the microfocus X-ray CT facility in the ESI. The Ghent University Special Research Fund (BOF-UGent) for the financial support of the Centre of Expertise UGCT (BOF.EXP.2017.0007), the Sterkfontein excavations and MicroCT scanning work have been provided by National Research Foundation and by PAST.http://www.nature.com/srepam2021Anatom

A large scale hearing loss screen reveals an extensive unexplored genetic landscape for auditory dysfunction

The developmental and physiological complexity of the auditory system is likely reflected in the underlying set of genes involved in auditory function. In humans, over 150 non-syndromic loci have been identified, and there are more than 400 human genetic syndromes with a hearing loss component. Over 100 non-syndromic hearing loss genes have been identified in mouse and human, but we remain ignorant of the full extent of the genetic landscape involved in auditory dysfunction. As part of the International Mouse Phenotyping Consortium, we undertook a hearing loss screen in a cohort of 3006 mouse knockout strains. In total, we identify 67 candidate hearing loss genes. We detect known hearing loss genes, but the vast majority, 52, of the candidate genes were novel. Our analysis reveals a large and unexplored genetic landscape involved with auditory function

Big Bang nucleosynthesis and physics beyond the Standard Model

The Hubble expansion of galaxies, the 2.73\dK blackbody radiation background and the cosmic abundances of the light elements argue for a hot, dense origin of the universe --- the standard Big Bang cosmology --- and enable its evolution to be traced back fairly reliably to the nucleosynthesis era when the temperature was of \Or(1) MeV corresponding to an expansion age of \Or(1) sec. All particles, known and hypothetical, would have been created at higher temperatures in the early universe and analyses of their possible effects on the abundances of the synthesized elements enable many interesting constraints to be obtained on particle properties. These arguments have usefully complemented laboratory experiments in guiding attempts to extend physics beyond the Standard SU(3)_{\c}{\otimes}SU(2)_{\L}{\otimes}U(1)_{Y} Model, incorporating ideas such as supersymmetry, compositeness and unification. We first present a pedagogical account of relativistic cosmology and primordial nucleosynthesis, discussing both theoretical and observational aspects, and then proceed to examine such constraints in detail, in particular those pertaining to new massless particles and massive unstable particles. Finally, in a section aimed at particle physicists, we illustrate applications of such constraints to models of new physics.Comment: 156 pages LaTeX, including 18 PostScript figures; uses ioplppt.sty, epsf, and personal style file (incl.); Revised and updated to include, e.g. implications of new deuterium observations in primordial clouds; 2-up PostScript version (78 pages) available at ftp://ftp.physics.ox.ac.uk/pub/local/users/sarkar/BBNreview.ps.gz ; to appear in Reports on Progress in Physic

Cerebral small vessel disease genomics and its implications across the lifespan

White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are the most common brain-imaging feature of cerebral small vessel disease (SVD), hypertension being the main known risk factor. Here, we identify 27 genome-wide loci for WMH-volume in a cohort of 50,970 older individuals, accounting for modification/confounding by hypertension. Aggregated WMH risk variants were associated with altered white matter integrity (p = 2.5×10-7) in brain images from 1,738 young healthy adults, providing insight into the lifetime impact of SVD genetic risk. Mendelian randomization suggested causal association of increasing WMH-volume with stroke, Alzheimer-type dementia, and of increasing blood pressure (BP) with larger WMH-volume, notably also in persons without clinical hypertension. Transcriptome-wide colocalization analyses showed association of WMH-volume with expression of 39 genes, of which four encode known drug targets. Finally, we provide insight into BP-independent biological pathways underlying SVD and suggest potential for genetic stratification of high-risk individuals and for genetically-informed prioritization of drug targets for prevention trials.Peer reviewe

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Cerebral small vessel disease genomics and its implications across the lifespan

White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are the most common brain-imaging feature of cerebral small vessel disease (SVD), hypertension being the main known risk factor. Here, we identify 27 genome-wide loci for WMH-volume in a cohort of 50,970 older individuals, accounting for modification/confounding by hypertension. Aggregated WMH risk variants were associated with altered white matter integrity (p = 2.5×10-7) in brain images from 1,738 young healthy adults, providing insight into the lifetime impact of SVD genetic risk. Mendelian randomization suggested causal association of increasing WMH-volume with stroke, Alzheimer-type dementia, and of increasing blood pressure (BP) with larger WMH-volume, notably also in persons without clinical hypertension. Transcriptome-wide colocalization analyses showed association of WMH-volume with expression of 39 genes, of which four encode known drug targets. Finally, we provide insight into BP-independent biological pathways underlying SVD and suggest potential for genetic stratification of high-risk individuals and for genetically-informed prioritization of drug targets for prevention trials.</p

Experimental and numerical study of dynamic stall on a high solidity vertical axiswind turbine

L'éolienne Darrieus connaît un intérêt accru ces dernières années parce qu'elle représente une solution alternative potentielle de production d'électricité dans les milieux urbains. En particulier,une éolienne de forte solidité peut être choisie car certaines de ses propriétés peuvent être avantageuses pour son implantation proche de zones habitées. A l'inverse, certaines difficultés aérodynamiques émergent. Ce type d'éolienne fonctionne à de faibles vitesses réduites pour lesquelles le décrochage dynamique a un rôle très significatif. L'objectif de ce travail de thèse consiste à compléter la connaissance du phénomène de décrochage dynamique sur une éolienne à axe vertical afin d'améliorer les modèles numériques de prédiction existants. Cette étude s'appuie sur une analyse combinée de résultats numériques et expérimentaux. Les simulations numériques sont produites avec une méthode des panneaux bidimensionnelle instationnaire. Les effets de la viscosité sont introduits par des corrections utilisant notamment un modèle semi-empirique de décrochage dynamique. Le travail expérimental s'est concentrée sur la dynamique tourbillonnaire à proximité immédiate du rotor résultante du décrochage dynamique. Le montage se compose d'une éolienne à pale droite placée dans une soufflerie. Des mesures instationnaires de la répartition de pression pariétale le long de la corde et des mesures de champ de vitesse par vélocimétrie par images de particules ont été accomplies. Les résultats révèlent la manière dont les caractéristiques du décrochage dynamique sont conditionnées par la vitesse réduite. Le retard au décrochage, l'intensité de l'effet du tourbillon de décrochage dynamique et sa convection ont été quantifiés. Enfin, un examen critique de l'applicabilité du modèle de Leishman-Beddoes pour simuler efficacement les effets du décrochage dynamique a été réalisé.The Darrieus wind turbine has entered a period of renewed interest over the last years because it may stand for an alternative solution to produce electricity in urban areas. In particular, high solidity wind turbine can be chosen to take benefit from some of its key properties for use near populated city areas. Conversely, some aerodynamic problems arise. This type of wind turbine operates at low tip speed ratio for which dynamic stall has a very significant role. The goal of this work is to provide valuable data to complement the knowledge of the dynamic stall phenomenon that occurs on a vertical axis wind turbine in order to improve existing numerical models. This study relies on a combined analysis of numerical and experimental results. The numerical simulations are based on a bidimensional unsteady vortex panel method. Effects of viscosity are introduced by adding corrections computed with a semi-empirical dynamic stall model. The experimental work focuses on the dynamics of the shed vortices existing in the vicinity of the rotor as a result of dynamic stall. The set-up consists of a straight-bladed wind turbine tested in a wind tunnel. Unsteady pressure distribution measurements along the chord and velocity fields measurements by particle image velocimetry were carried out. Results indicate how the characteristics of dynamic stall are conditioned by the tip speed ratio. Stall inception delay, magnitude of the dynamic stall vortex effects and its convection velocity were evaluated. Blade/Vortex interaction was analyzed through the observation of the vortical system downstream of the rotor. In addition, a critical review of the suitability of the Leishman-Beddoes model to effectively simulate the effects of dynamic stall was accomplished